Section 12. Thematic reviews
12.1. Climate Change
12.1.1. Global Trends and Implications
According to the WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report, 2024 was the warmest year in the 175-year observational record (since 1850). It saw new records for greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, surface air and ocean temperatures, ocean heat content, sea level rise, and glacier retreat. Climate change is accelerating, impacting all components of the climate system - the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and biosphere - with increasingly severe consequences for human health, food and water security, infrastructure, and economies worldwide. Although the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement remains theoretically within reach, achieving it is now under serious threat.
Key climate indicators
Temperature. The global annual average temperature was approximately 1.55°C (±0.13°C) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, a finding consistent across all major international datasets. The decade 2015-2024 was the warmest on record. This warming was driven primarily by rising GHG concentrations and amplified by the El Niño event, which intensified atmospheric and oceanic heating.
Greenhouse gases. Atmospheric levels of the three main GHGs - carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) - reached new peaks. Data from WMO Bulletin No. 20 show concentrations of 420 ppm for CO₂, 1934 ppb for CH₄, and 336 ppb for N₂O. These values represent 151%, 265%, and 125% of pre-industrial levels, respectively. The increase in CO₂ concentration by 11.4% over just the past two decades is particularly concerning.
Oceans. The oceans absorb roughly 90% of the excess heat trapped by GHGs. In 2024, global ocean heat content reached its highest level in the 65-year observational record. The rate of ocean warming since 2005 has more than doubled compared to the 1960-2005 period. Projections indicate ocean warming will continue throughout this century, even under low-emission scenarios. Concurrently, ocean acidification persists, evidenced by a steady decline in the global average pH of surface waters.
Sea level. Global mean sea level reached a record high in 2024 since satellite measurements began in 1993. The rate of rise over the past decade (2015-2024), at 4.7 mm per year, was more than double the rate observed in the first decade of satellite records (1993-2002, 2.1 mm per year).
Cryosphere. Glaciers experienced their most negative mass balance on record during the 2022-2024 period. Particularly severe ice loss was recorded in Norway, Sweden, Svalbard, and the tropical Andes. Seven of the ten years with the highest glacier mass loss since 1950 have occurred since 2016.
Extreme events and impacts
2024 set a new record for the number of weather- and climate-related disasters leading to mass displacement - the highest since 2008. Extreme events destroyed homes, infrastructure, and agricultural land, damaged ecosystems, worsened food insecurity, and heightened the vulnerability of populations, especially in conflict-affected regions.
Tropical cyclones were responsible for the most significant disasters: (1) typhoon Yagi affected Vietnam, the Philippines, southern China, Laos, Thailand, and Myanmar; (2) hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States caused tens of billions of dollars in damage and claimed over 200 lives, marking the deadliest hurricane season in the U.S. since Katrina (2005); cyclone Chido struck Mayotte, Mozambique, and Malawi, causing widespread destruction, loss of life, and displacing approximately 100,000 people.
Food security deteriorated sharply, with crises intensifying in 18 countries. In eight countries, the population facing acute food insecurity grew by over one million people. Key drivers included drought, high food prices, and the impact of El Niño on cereal yields.
Flooding in Brazil (May) killed over 200 and devastated agriculture and fisheries. In Spain's Valencia region, a record 772 mm of rain fell within 24 hours on October 29, triggering deadly floods. Floods and cold snaps in Afghanistan and neighboring countries resulted in hundreds of fatalities and inundated 35,000 hectares of farmland. During the summer, intense monsoon rains caused widespread flooding across the Sahel and East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan).
Severe drought gripped Northwest and Southern Africa (notably Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana, and Namibia), crippling agriculture and hydropower. In Chile, the February wildfires were the country's most destructive this century, killing over 300 people. Canada and the United States also experienced one of their most severe wildfire seasons on record, displacing more than 300,000 people.
Heatwaves affected vast regions, including East Asia, Southern Europe, the Middle East, North America, and Africa. In Saudi Arabia, temperatures reaching 50°C during the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca led to numerous heat-related fatalities. Full report.
Impact on water resources
The WMO's State of Global Water Resources report highlights increasing instability in the global hydrological cycle. In 2024, only about one-third of the world's river basins experienced near-normal flow conditions, with the rest facing significant water deficits or surpluses.
2024 marked the third consecutive year of widespread glacier melt across all regions. Many areas dependent on meltwater from smaller glaciers are at or approaching "peak water" - the point of maximum annual runoff - after which supplies will diminish as glaciers shrink. Severe drought affected the Amazon basin, parts of South America, and Southern Africa, while anomalously wet conditions prevailed in Central, Western, and Eastern Africa, parts of Asia, and Central Europe. Full report
Global сlimate policy and economic risks
The UN Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2024 warns that current national policies and pledges put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.6–3.1°C by 2100. To stay on a pathway limiting warming to 1.5°C, global emissions must fall by approximately 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 relative to 2019 levels. Achieving this, while technically feasible, requires a transformative scale-up of solar and wind energy, forest restoration, reform of the global financial system, and massive investment in climate mitigation. G20 nations, particularly major emitters, bear primary responsibility for delivering a step-change in ambition and accelerating action within this decade.
Research on “The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature” suggests that 1°C of global warming could reduce world GDP by over 20%. If current trends persist, the cumulative loss to global welfare could exceed 30%, and the social cost of carbon could rise above $1,500 per ton. These figures underscore that the economic costs of inaction far outweigh the investments required for timely climate adaptation and mitigation.
12.1.2. Regional Focus: Asia and Central Asia
Climate Trends in Asia
The WMO's State of the Climate in Asia 2024 report indicates the continent is warming at nearly twice the global average rate. 2024 was either the first or second warmest year on record for Asia (after 2020), with a mean temperature about 1.04°C above the 1991–2020 mean.
Record-high sea surface temperatures and extensive marine heatwaves were observed. Sea level rise in the Pacific and Indian Oceans exceeded the global mean, heightening risks for low-lying coastal areas. Glaciers in the High Mountain Asia region (including the Himalayas and Tien Shan) continued to retreat rapidly, increasing hazards from glacial lake outburst floods and landslides and threatening long-term water security for millions. Extreme rainfall, droughts, and tropical cyclones caused widespread damage and loss of life. The report stresses the urgent need for investment in climate adaptation, early warning systems, and resilient development.
Central Asia: Accelerating Changes
Central Asian countries have experienced a clear and accelerating warming trend since the late 20th century. While earlier temperature variations remained within the climatic norm (1961–2010), warming intensified from the late 1980s and accelerated sharply after the 2000s. 2024 was the warmest year in the region's instrumental history, with temperatures in all Central Asian countries exceeding the norm by more than +1.5°C. This confirms a regional pattern of intensifying climate change, manifested through more frequent droughts, land degradation, growing water scarcity, and the rapid retreat of glaciers.
Kazakhstan. In April 2024, the country experienced its most severe flooding in 80 years. A state of emergency was declared in 10 provinces, affecting approximately 100,000 people. The summer brought extreme heat and drought, particularly in the Syr Darya River basin. According to research published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, the Aralkum Desert remains a primary source of dust storms, impacting the atmospheric radiation balance and air quality in western and southern regions (Mangystau, Kyzylorda, and Turkistan provinces).
Kyrgyzstan. Spring 2024 saw 115 recorded cases of mudflows and flash floods triggered by heavy rainfall. In Jalal-Abad, there were 82 days with temperatures classified as hot, of which 28 exceeded +35°C. Increasing heat and moisture deficits are heightening the risks of glacial lake outburst floods, with around 350 glacial lakes now considered potentially hazardous. In July, the emergency warning system of the Ministry of Emergency Situations prevented a possible outburst of Lake Zyndan Zapadnoye in Issyk-Kul province, enabling the timely evacuation of local residents.
Tajikistan. From April to May 2024, intense rainfall in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Province (GBAO) caused significant flooding and mudflows. Summer temperatures reached 46°C in Khatlon province, accompanied by severe dust storms. Natural disasters cost the country an estimated 0.4–1.3% of its GDP annually. According to UNICEF, 23 out of 62 districts are classified as high-vulnerability zones. The high proportion of annual economic losses from natural disasters makes Tajikistan one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in Central Asia. In 2024, a roadmap was adopted under “Early Warnings for All” Initiative, aimed at enhancing preparedness and reducing climate risks.
Turkmenistan. The frequency of salt-dust storms increased in spring and summer 2024, causing disruptions to power supply and damage to infrastructure, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country. A major episode occurred on June 22, reducing visibility to 50 meters, damaging power lines, and tearing roofs off buildings.
Uzbekistan. According to the national hydrometeorological service (Uzhydromet), summer 2024 was one of the three warmest on record. Temperatures exceeded the norm by 1–2°C, and by 2–2.5°C in June. The number of days with temperatures above +40°C surpassed the average of the last decade. Sand and dust storms remain a major climate threat, with their frequency and intensity increasing, especially in the Republic of Karakalpakstan, and Bukhara and Surkhandarya provinces.
12.1.3. Response Measures and Climate Policy
In 2024, global and regional efforts to combat climate change continued to gain momentum, reflecting growing political will, technological progress, and an increased awareness of the need to adapt to climate risks.
Global Context
The European Union (EU) advanced the implementation of the European Green Deal, including the launch of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This instrument is designed to equalize the cost of carbon-intensive goods produced within the EU and those imported from third countries by requiring the purchase of CBAM certificates. A transitional phase began in 2024, mandating importers to report embedded emissions without financial obligations; the full implementation with financial charges is scheduled for 2026. Additionally, new regulations on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) and the EU Methane Regulation came into force. Funding for sustainable energy projects under the REPowerEU Plan was substantially increased, and new legislative acts on nature restoration and industrial decarbonization were adopted. The European Commission also launched the European Energy Efficiency Financing Coalition, bringing together EU member states, financial institutions, and international partners to mobilize private investment and create sustainable financing mechanisms for energy efficiency projects.
The United Kingdom, while no longer an EU member, continued its active climate policy. On September 30, 2024, the country's last coal-fired power station, Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station (2,000 MW capacity), was shut down. This event marked the end of coal-fired power generation in the UK and reaffirmed the country's commitment to achieving net-zero emissions.
The United States continued implementing the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides the largest climate investment package in the nation's history. In 2024, major subsidy programs were launched to support electric vehicle manufacturing, clean energy, and sustainable agriculture. Significant investments were announced for modernizing the power grid, alongside substantial funding for monitoring and reducing methane emissions in the oil and gas sector.
China adopted the 2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan, targeting a reduction in the energy intensity of GDP and CO₂ emissions. The country maintained its global leadership in deploying new solar and wind capacity and in developing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies, hydrogen energy, and a green power certificate mechanism.
India continued implementing its National Solar Mission, launching a program to support household solar installations. This initiative contributed to a record increase in solar capacity of 24.5 GW, nearly double the figure from the previous year.
Africa. The first Climate and Health Africa Conference (CHAC-2024) was held in Harar, Ethiopia, resulting in the adoption of the Harar Declaration. This document aims to strengthen the climate resilience of healthcare systems and address serious challenges related to the impact of climate change on the continent's population health.
Central Asia
Central Asian countries intensified their efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation in 2024, strengthening institutional frameworks and advancing green initiatives:
• Kazakhstan commenced work on updating its NDC, focusing on phasing out coal, developing renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency. In 2024, Kazakhstan accelerated reforms in low-carbon infrastructure. A mechanism for green financing and credit guarantees for renewable energy projects was introduced at development banks. Furthermore, the Development Bank of Kazakhstan approved a Green and Reimbursement Financing Policy aimed at stimulating investment in sustainable projects.
• Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan prioritized the development of hydropower and sustainable water resource management, with a particular focus on participating in international initiatives for glacier monitoring and climate risk assessment.
In Kyrgyzstan a "green" transformation is being implemented in accordance with the “Kyrgyzstan – a Green Economy Country” concept. This document outlines strategic directions for sustainable development. In 2024, work continued on developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP), aimed at enhancing climate resilience in key sectors—agriculture, water resources, and energy. The plan envisages integrating climate risks into national planning and strengthening institutional capacity. Thus, the country’s climate policy combines green economy development with adaptation measures, ensuring an integrated approach to climate mitigation and enhanced nature and economy resilience.
Tajikistan. In November 2024, the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Tajikistan was published. Central to plans for a green, sustainable transformation is the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) project (3,780 MW). The commissioning of this plant will be a significant step towards decarbonizing and transforming the country's economy. Expert estimates suggest that effective adaptation investments could cut Tajikistan’s climate-related GDP losses from 5–6% down to 2–3.8%. These gains would stem from reducing the impact of climate factors: specifically, lowering flood damage to transport infrastructure by 60%, livestock losses by 40–50%, and labor productivity losses by 20–30%.
• Turkmenistan intensified efforts in afforestation, energy conservation, and adapting agriculture to changing climatic conditions and extended participation in regional climate programs. The country continued implementing its National Strategy on Climate Change, aimed at adapting key sectors and reducing GHG emissions. In collaboration with UNEP and UNDP, work is underway to develop a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and establish a GHG inventory system and measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) mechanisms. Turkmenistan confirmed its intention to reduce GHG emissions by 20% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels and joined the Global Methane Pledge in December 2023. At the regional level, Turkmenistan proposed the initiative to establish a UN-backed Regional Climate Technology Center in Ashgabat.
• Uzbekistan continued its course towards an accelerated energy and climate transition in 2024. The country set a target to reach a total installed renewable energy capacity of 19 GW by 2030 and reach a 54% share of RES in energy mix. To stimulate sustainable development, a significant increase in "green" projects is planned in the next five years. A dual education system tailored to the industry and energy sectors is being implemented, alongside the establishment of next-generation engineering schools. These institutions focus on training specialists in renewable energy, energy efficiency, green technologies, and digital solutions for agriculture.
In 2024, the CA countries worked on implementing the Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy adopted in 2023. Regional Working Group’s meetings were held on implementation of the Strategy, the Secretariat of the RWG was established and recommendations for effective implementation of the Strategy were discussed.
12.1.4. International Processes and Climate Justice
The Paris Agreement and COP29
The Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) remains the key international instrument uniting 195 countries responsible for over 98% of global GHG emissions. In 2024, GHG emissions hit a new record high of 40.8 billion metric tons of CO₂ equivalent, up from 40.3 billion tons in 2023, despite the significant expansion of renewables and international climate pledges. The world’s top three emitters - China, the United States, and India - continue to maintain their dominant share of global emissions.
Starting in 2020, countries have been submitting their national climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). According to the NDC Insights Series, by the end of 2024, 19 countries had submitted their NDCs. This group includes five G20 members, five Small Island Developing States (SIDS), two BRICS nations, and one Least Developed Country (LDC). Collectively, these nations account for 20.5% of global GHG emissions. If all remaining expected NDCs are submitted by COP30, the coverage of global emissions is projected to reach 96.2%.
Under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF), nations have begun providing comprehensive reports on climate mitigation, adaptation, and support - aligned with Paris Agreement regulations. By year-end 2024, 90 countries had successfully submitted their first biennial reports.
A key event of 2024 was the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UNFCCC. Held under the theme “In solidarity for a green world” from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the conference brought together over 70,000 delegates. The central topic was climate finance, including the agreement on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Developed countries made commitments to increase climate finance for developing countries. Developed nations have committed to tripling their annual climate finance for developing countries, increasing it from $100 billion to $300 billion by 2035. Furthermore, they aim to mobilize up to $1.3 trillion per year from a variety of sources, including public and private sectors, multilateral funds, and innovative financial instruments.
Nevertheless, COP29 highlighted persistent disagreements on core climate agenda items: adaptation, finance, and mitigation. Negotiations on GHG emissions reduction and the formulation of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) failed to produce a unified decision text, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The final outcomes were limited to framework provisions, with key issues deferred to the sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies scheduled to take place in Bonn in 2025.
Key COP29 Agreements
• Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge: a commitment to increase global energy storage capacity to 1,500 GW by 2030 and develop green energy corridors (the initiative aims to accelerate the transition to RES).
• Hydrogen Declaration: countries reaffirmed their commitment to accelerating the development of clean, renewable, and low-carbon hydrogen as a key decarbonization tool. The declaration outlines plans to scale up hydrogen demand, integrate it into national energy and climate strategies, establish international standards, build necessary infrastructure, and provide support to developing nations.
• Declaration on Green Digital Action: a pledge by nations and the private sector to harness digital solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Participation of Central Asian Countries at COP29
Countries across Central Asia spoke with a coordinated voice, highlighting that a regional framework is vital for climate adaptation and resource stewardship. The Conference served as a platform for these nations to present their progress and objectives aligned with their revised national climate action plans
Kazakhstan demonstrated initiatives for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 and developing a carbon trading platform. Emphasis was placed on land degradation neutrality and restoration projects. Kyrgyzstan presented its NDC 3.0 roadmap, GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) monitoring solutions, and a new Nature Conservation Trust Fund. Sessions led by the delegation focused on mountain sustainability, gender issues, and youth empowerment, with a strong emphasis on fostering employment within mountain communities.
Tajikistan advocated for initiatives on glacier preservation. President Emomali Rahmon proposed establishing a Regional Coordination Center for Glaciology in Dushanbe under the auspices of the WMO and supported the UN Action Decade of Cryospheric Sciences (2024-2033).
Turkmenistan engaged in key discussions regarding climate adaptation, green financing, and technological innovation. The country highlighted water stewardship and renewables as strategic priorities, reaffirming its commitment to regional collaboration to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Uzbekistan presented its strategy for drought-resilient agriculture and solar energy expansion at COP29. The country, alongside Azerbaijan and the IOM, introduced the “Silk Road Declaration” regarding climate-induced migration. President Mirziyoyev’s proposals included an International Climate Loss and Damage Assessment Center, a regional seed and genetic bank for resilient crops, and a UN Innovative Agri-Hub specifically for landlocked nations. He also spearheaded a call for a UN Declaration focused on the ecological security of river ecosystems.
On the sidelines of COP29, a ministerial meeting of Central Asian countries was held, reaffirming commitment to the Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. The discussions focused on concrete steps for climate data exchange and transboundary water management (including joint monitoring and planning). Key priorities included the establishment of the Central Asian Climate Data Center as a platform for scientific exchange and decision support, as well as the development of climate finance mechanisms and enhanced access to international funds. Special attention was paid to the Regional Climate Action Transparency Hub (ReCATH), which presented findings on GHG inventory, adaptation planning, and the readiness of regional countries for the upcoming reporting cycle under the Paris Agreement.
Climate Litigation: Trends in 2024
In 2024, climate change-related litigation gained even greater prominence. In many countries, the judiciary is increasingly being utilized as a strategic tool to enhance climate accountability for both corporations and the state, as well as a primary means of safeguarding human rights amid the escalating climate crisis.
The US remained the epicenter of climate litigation: in 2024, 41 active cases were recorded against major oil and gas corporations, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and BP. These proceedings are becoming a primary instrument for applying public and legal pressure on businesses to accelerate reforms. Meanwhile, although U.S. climate policy remains vulnerable to domestic political polarization, several states, most notably California and New York, have continued to independently implement ambitious climate strategies aimed at emissions reduction and the development of a green economy.
Europe. One of the most significant developments was the ruling by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in the case of Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland (April 2024). For the first time, the Court ruled that a state had failed to take sufficient measures to combat climate change, thereby violating human rights protected under the European Convention on Human Rights. This landmark decision is unprecedented and establishes a legal precedent for similar litigation across other European nations.
In Italy the first climate-related lawsuit against a private corporation, ENI, entered its active phase. Filed in 2023 by Greenpeace, ReCommon, and 12 individual citizens, the plaintiffs are seeking to hold the company accountable for its contribution to climate change. They are also requesting a court order to align ENI's corporate operations with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. This proceeding has set a significant precedent in Italian jurisprudence and has bolstered the growing trend of holding businesses legally liable for climate-related impacts.
In Norway, the Oslo District Court invalidated the development licenses for three new oil fields in the North Sea, ruling that a proper climate impact assessment had not been conducted during the project approval process. The decision, ruled in favor of Greenpeace Nordic and the youth movement Natur og Ungdom, represents a historic victory for civil society and underscores Norway's obligations under the Paris Agreement.
At the request of the Commission of Small Island States (COSIS), theInternational Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) issued an Advisory Opinion clarifying state obligations under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) regarding the protection of the marine environment from anthropogenic GHG emissions. The Tribunal unanimously reached the following key conclusions: (1) anthropogenic GHG emissions into the atmosphere qualify as "pollution of the marine environment", as they lead to ocean warming and acidification; (2) state obligations to protect the marine environment are characterized as "due diligence"; they are stringent and require the adoption of national measures based on the best available science and international standards; (3) under Article 194(1) of UNCLOS, states are mandated to take "all measures necessary" to prevent, reduce, and control pollution caused by GHG emissions; (4) states must ensure that activities within their jurisdiction do not cause damage to other states or areas beyond national jurisdiction through such pollution; (5) developed states have an obligation to provide assistance to vulnerable developing states, including SIDS, in combating GHG-induced pollution and implementing adaptation measures.
Despite its non-binding nature, the ITLOS Advisory Opinion establishes a significant legal foundation for holding states accountable for the climate crisis and strengthening the protection of the marine environment.
Thus, 2024 marked an important stage in the institutionalization of international climate justice. The decisions rendered strengthen the legal frameworks for climate accountability and demonstrate the increasing role of the judiciary in ensuring a just and sustainable transition toward low-carbon development.
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