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WP-7: Participative scenario analysis, testing of regional model and integrated evaluation of sustainable development of water management in the Chirchik basin
Objectives
- Analysis of the water resources management and setting of long-term water management objectives, identification of criteria of sustainable water situation and for development of effective management mechanism
- Supply and downscaling of climate data and climate scenarios to the Chirchik basin
- Modifications of the modeling framework with stakeholders and potential users
- Development of integrated regional model including components of database and program modules created within the project and MOSDELII system
- Organisation of workshops on promoting integrated water resources management and environmentally sound approach in the Chirchik river basin
- Developing scenarios of water management for the establishment of river basin management plans
Description of work
The first step in the Chirchik basin is the definition and analysis of priorities and key issues in water resources management within the basin and the search of effective solutions to the problems (including compromises) at national and basin level. While analyzing existing management structure, management structure requirements will be developed using geographical, basin and system (large irrigation systems) approach and self-government at the lower level in form of water user associations. The integrated regional model MOSDEL II including information flows between program modules and databases will be adapted and tested and interfaces and schemes of interactions between program modules will be programmed. Scenarios will be developed jointly with river basin organisation, supported by numerical experiments with the integrated regional model and downscaled climate scenarios. Recommendations for its application will be given and end users will be trained in workshops on sustainable water resources management issues in order to improve the skills and knowledge on IWRM of the personal of the water management and environmental protection bodies of the Chirchik River basin.
Deliverables
- Highly resoluted climate scenarios from stochatical model until 2030 for the Chirchik river basin
- Adapted integrated model for the river basin organisation in the Chirchik river basin, incl. training of staff members of water management bodies
- Final report on alternative scenarios of sustainable development of water management for the Chirchik basin
Milestones and expected results
- Analysis water institutions
- Setting of long-term water management goals and sustainability indicators
- Rules and Model to classify atmospheric pressure data in objective circulation patterns, stochastical model to generate spatially highly resolved meteorological input data for the Chirchik
- Workshops with personal of water management and envirnmental protection bodies
- Integrated regional model running
- Result of first scenario simulation runs with integrated model
- Presentation of preliminary results of scenario runs to the stakeholders and policy makers
- Final scenario versions presented and discussed with policy makers, stakeholders and river basin committees
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