WP-3: Participative scenario analysis, integrated model development and evaluation of sustainable water management in the Neckar basin

Objectives

• Analysis of the institutional framework of water resources management and identification of long-term water management goals and sustainability indicators
• Supply and downscaling of climate data and climate scenarios
• Conception of modifications of the modeling framework with stakeholders and potential users
• Integration of submodels into the integrated regional model and validation in the Neckar basin incl. training of end users
• Developing scenarios of water management for the establishment of river basin management plans

Description of work

In order to establish integrated scenarios for the two river basins, in the first place scenario working groups will be established for each river basin consisting of the river basin group members and other experts. The lead contractor is analysing the institutional framework in the respective river basin through expert consultations at various levels (local to regional) and, as far as those exist, through participation of river basin organisations. The institutions have to be gathered in a first workshop at the beginning of the project to discuss and identify common objectives of river basin management. Then these objectives are evaluated concerning their consistency and indicators measuring the achievement of the objectives are established. These indicators will be key output parameters of the integrated model and have to be discussed in a second workshop with stakeholders, scientists and modellers. Working in close consultation with the local population and their representative organisations will ensure a transparent project information policy and facilitate identification with and acceptance of the project goals established during the previous workpackage phase (EU water directive and public participation)

In order to consider global climate change in the water management plans, climate scenarios are required. Currently, climate models (GCM/RCM) may simulate realistic fields of meteorological state variables, especially air pressure, but they may not simulate precipitation at resolutions required for the integrated model. To overstep this hurdle we will perform a stochastical downscaling of rainfall and different meteorological fields originating from regional climate models in a fuzzy approach.

The scenario group will prepare draft storylines for each river basin based on the IPCC global change baseline scenarios. The storylines will be discussed and adjusted with stakeholders, policy makers and river basin committee members. Then they will be submitted to the first simulation runs of the integrated model.

As integration tool a GIS based regional model is proposed. Here it is especially referred to a successful recent example of land use simulation models: MOSDEL (short description see Annex IV). GIS models have been proved as very useful, especially if investigated functions can be related to space unities as the river basins. GIS has become a well established tool in public administration. Thus, the installation of the central deliverable of the project can be done easily and without extra software costs. The different modules of the ArcGIS software will be used to create an adapted and efficient programming framework. There, the spatial database can be combined with functions and temporarily stored intermediate results of the submodels. Using the ArcObjects as a visual basis for Applications components it is possible to control run calls and the exchange of results of submodels using external tools like GAMS, CASIMIR, MODFLOW, HBV etc. or coded as internal scripts using ArcObjects. The ArcGIS component ArcMap permits to design a Graphic user Interface (GUI) to specify scenario and computation options, to start the computation process and to display the results as tabular sheets and (in the main) as maps.

For a successful integration of the submodels it will be necessary to add adapted data interface programs which support the data exchange among the submodels. The coupled data and model architecture enables to compute and to visualize the scenarios or administrative queries.

The integrated model will be developed from the beginning in close co-operation with the future users and decision-makers represented in the river basin committee. To facilitate a permanent exchange of information between the project and local organisations, seminars on the project’s methodology and topics related to water management will be offered to local organisations’ members. On the project side scientists will participate in meetings of the local organisations and population. River basin group meetings will be held regularly every 2-3 months to discuss the further development of the model.

The resulting scenario simulations showing the impact of the storylines on water supply, water quality and regional economy will be presented and readjusted with the river basin group for final simulation runs. The final alternative scenarios will be handed over to the river basin organisations as strategic guideline for the preparation of river basin management plans.

Deliverables

• Highly resoluted climate scenarios from stochatical model until 2030 for the Neckar river basin
• Integrated model as decision support system for public authorities in the Neckar river basin, incl. model documentation and training of users
• Report on alternative scenarios of sustainable development of water management for the Neckar river basin

Milestones and expected results

• Expert consultations
• Workshop
• River basin scenario working group established
• Rules and Model to classify atmospheric pressure data in objective circulation patterns, stochastical model to generate spatially highly resolved meteorological input data for the Neckar
• Networking, participation of stakeholders and public relations according to EU directive water
• Seminars with stakeholders and end users
• First draft of scenarios to be discussed with stakeholders
• Result of first scenario simulation runs with integrated model
• Presentation of preliminary results of scenario runs to the stakeholders and policy makers
• Integrated model built up in the Neckar basin
• Final scenario versions presented and discussed with policy makers, stakeholders and river basin committees

Designed by
SIC ICWC