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Ïî-ðóññêè

AGRICULTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WHICH LINKAGES WITH WATER?

Agriculture and food production are key to the future of our world and key also to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). 850 million people remain under-nourished and this number, which has been on the decline for several decades has become stable or even slightly increasing in the past 5 years.

Agriculture remains key to the development of many countries. In many emerging and least developed countries, agriculture remains the main component in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and farmers (especially small-scale) represent the majority of the population. The situation differs, however, and can be classified in three main blocks:

  • Developed countries. Agriculture’s share of the GDP is low and farmers represent only a small and declining proportion of the population. Agriculture is generally supported by these societies, which has several debated effects on the world food trade. This situation is the result of several decades (if not centuries) of technological progress. Today the productivity in these countries is about 500 times more than that of the small-scale farmers in the emerging and least developed countries;
  • Emerging countries. The situation in several of these countries shows similarities with what prevailed in the recent past in the developed countries: the development of economy drives farmers from their land to the urban areas and the increasing demand generates increases in production. In these countries there remain large numbers of rural poor lacking access to land or other resources; some of these countries have recently become among the largest food exporters. As far as the farmers are concerned one may observe three different trends:
    • increase in farm sizes and introduction of mechanisation;
    • transfer to cultivation to higher value crops (vegetables, cash crops) in order to retain a living on a relatively small plot;
    • change to part time farming, in combination with a job in the industry or the service sector.
    Such changes have had far reaching consequences in the developed countries, reducing the farmers population to 2 - 3%. Such a process has already started in several emerging countries and one may expect that during the coming century such a process will occur in a substantial part of the emerging countries;
  • Least developed countries. One may expect that at least for the medium term future agriculture remains the activity of a majority of farmers with little productivity, lacking all types of inputs and resources to increase their productivity. Despite of this situation these countries are increasingly importing their food. It will be of importance to find at least ways that these countries become overall food self-sufficient.

Especially in the least developed and emerging countries farmers have a specific role in the societies they feed: they are requested to produce food at a price that is affordable in particular to the poorest people living in cities. Through this role they guarantee social stability and as a counterpart, they pay little taxes. This role is very much related to the concept of food-sovereignty; it explains why food prices are not and most probably will never be simply regulated by market rules.

Population dynamics and agriculture development are strongly and in a complex way interrelated. Increases in productivity require (or are the result of) increases of the farm sizes and mechanisation (in addition to the increase of inputs). These changes require farmers that are in a development mode and not in a survival mode.

In these conditions, rural exodus is positive if it actually helps those who remain on their farms to develop their production. This is likely to be the case if the migrants are attracted to urban areas where they have alternative job opportunities. It is negative on the other hand if migrants move to the urban areas because they cannot survive anymore and if they are ready to accept the difficulties of slums or shanty towns. A good balance between farmers and poor population migrating to urban areas is therefore a key to development and to food sovereignty.

Interactions between agriculture and natural resources (land, water, ecosystems) need also to be considered, this is especially the case in Asia and in the Near and Middle East where the density of population is the highest. It is also very relevant, while it is expected that by far most of the increase in production will have to come from existing cultivated land. This may imply: introduction of or improvement in water management, increase in cropping intensity, increased application of fertilisers and pesticides. Especially the last item may have far reaching implications for the environment and would require strong regulation to prevent very damaging consequences.

Conclusions

Before examining the relations between water and agriculture, it is fundamental to understand the dynamics of agriculture development that are related to population dynamics especially between rural areas and urban areas in the emerging countries, and the low agricultural productivity in the least developed countries.